After 7 Months of War, Why Didn’t Oil Prices Go Higher

When the United States and Israel went to war with Iran back on February 28, 2026, economists were predicting a doomsday scenario for global oil markets everywhere. This is because Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and even a partial shutdown due to the war has created an oil shortage.

Many analysts warned that even the partial closing of the Strait of Hormuz could be catastrophic. At first, oil prices were turbulent because of the war in Iran, but things have since smoothed over. It has been nothing like what was predicted, at least.

At Trucker Social, we’re going to take a look at what’s going on with oil prices and why the war in Iran didn’t have as big of an impact as expected.

Why Did They Predict Skyrocketing Oil Prices?

The logic behind this had to do with 20% of the oil going in transit through the Strait of Hormuz. When you lose 20% of the supply, analysts believe oil prices could’ve gone up anywhere from $150 a barrel to $200 a barrel. They never even came close to these numbers, with the peak being $120 a barrel in April.

Outside of that, the prices have stayed well below $100 a barrel on average since June. Despite the good news of staying below those prices, some analysts remain skeptical and believe that prices could still skyrocket.

Why Didn’t Oil Prices Go up to $150 a Barrel or $200 a Barrel?

No one knows the exact reasons, so it’s important to understand that this is speculation. However, analysts do have a few theories. One of the things that may have contributed was that China dropped its crude oil imports. This was a drop of five million barrels per day.

One of the big things experts are doing right now is discussing how much this has had of an impact on the price of oil.

The second factor has to do with how the United States started to pump more oil. By April, the United States had reached a record of 13.93 million barrels a day. They also freed oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which was a record 400 million barrels released.

This helped to cushion the disruption. Saudi Arabia also cushioned the loss from the Strait of Hormuz. They sharply increased their imports from the Red Sea Yanbu Port.

When the Strait Opens, Things Won’t Go Back to Normal

Even once the Strait opens again, things won’t return to normal for months, and there’s a reason. The reason behind this is that this partial closing of the Strait of Hormuz has created a backlog that they will need to catch up on.

This assumes that they damaged none of the gas infrastructure in Iran. And that simply isn’t true because the United States and Israel have continually struck gas facilities, oil depots, and transportation routes.

Three Separate Geopolitical Crises Raising the Price of Oil

The Strait of Hormuz is only one of the geopolitical crises currently impacting the price of oil. This makes it even more surprising that the cost of oil hasn’t gone up.

Two others include the Red Sea, where Yemen’s Houthis continue to attack oil tankers. These attacks are being done as a way to show support for Palestinians and to pressure Israel and its allies to stop the genocide in Palestine. The attacks are forcing more expensive logistical changes and further raising oil prices.

The third and final geopolitical crisis raising the prices of oil is the Russia-Ukraine War, with the Black Sea being a choke point. Ukrainian drone strikes on key facilities like the Sheskharis oil terminal have dropped the volumes being exported. It fell from 800,000 barrels per day in July down to 350,000 barrels per day in August.

What Do You Think is the Reason Why Oil Prices Didn’t Go Up?

No one knows the exact reasons, but this gives you some of the explanations that analysts have given for why oil prices haven’t gone up further.

At Trucker Social, we would love to hear what you think about the war in Iran and how it has impacted oil prices.

What are your opinions on why oil prices haven’t gone up more than they have? For the record, everyone knows they’ve gone up, but many believe this war would lead to a full-blown crisis, which hasn’t happened. What are your thoughts on why that hasn’t happened?