Something is Different This Time: Rates Are Up, but Trucking Jobs Aren’t

Most of the time, when you see trucking rates go up, trucking jobs increase with the rates. That has always been the historical trend. The reason is simple economics: When the rates go up, it means higher freight demand. That means you need more jobs to supply that demand.

That’s why the new trend, where the rates have risen but the trucking jobs have not grown with it, indicates a strange new trend. What could be happening? Based on employment data from back in July, trucking job growth stayed flat. We grew by 100 jobs. In June, we even lost 3,000 jobs, and in May, we lost 2,000 jobs.

Employment is only slightly higher than at the start of the year. What does this all mean? Keep reading because at Trucker Social, we’re going to show you why this is happening and what experts believe to be the cause of it.

What’s the Reason Behind This Strange Trend?

What we could be seeing here is the lasting impact of multiple poor years in trucking. It has taken several years to build up to this, but this could be why this has been happening. The harsher environment has affected trucking carriers. The other issue is the regulatory pressure we see for safer highways. That has made driver availability harder, and as a result, it has led to problems.

Everything has created an environment where trucking carriers must deal with higher operating costs, which makes it harder to hire more drivers and expand their operations.

It looks strange, but it would require an even higher rate increase before trucking carriers would hire more drivers to grow their operations. It’s not just recruiting. They also need to hire and retain the drivers they hire.

The problem is that trucking has a notoriously high turnover rate, which for large fleet operations typically sits between 80% and 94% annually. For large carriers, that means most of their drivers will be different the following year.

No Reason to Panic

Despite the lack of exceptional growth with the rising rates, job growth still sits in the slightly positive territory or slightly neutral. What makes this time different is the rising rates, but there’s no trucking job growth following it.

Since January 2023, we’ve seen seven months where trucking jobs increased. In July, there was a hardly noticeable jump of 100 new jobs.

Here’s why that could be happening. During COVID-19, there was a massive surge in spot rates and demand. Since that difficult period, we’ve spent a lot of time shedding old demand as things went back to normal. When economic activity normalized, we saw freight rates go into a four-year recession.

We continue to be in that recession, but things have begun to look more positive in 2026. One reason trucking jobs haven’t followed rising rates is that trucking companies have focused more on upgrading old equipment and increasing pay for current drivers.

What Could Restrict Trucking Jobs?

As trucking carriers face a new regulatory environment, higher fuel costs due to the US-Iran War, insurance costs, and safety ratings could further limit carriers' ability to create new jobs in the industry.

Another thing that could be impacting the rising rates in freight is the immigration crackdown on truckers. Trucking carriers are having to absorb some of these losses and find replacements in a limited pool with tighter restrictions than before.

What are Your Thoughts on the Rising Rates and Uninspiring Job Growth?

At Trucker Social, we would love to hear what you think of the rising rates and flat job growth. What do you think is behind this lack of growth? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and we’ll have an active discussion about why this might be happening. Maybe you see something that we didn’t see.